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《Research of Soil and Water Conservation》 2015-06
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Analysis on the Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Dingxi Based on R/S and Mann-Kendall Test

ZHANG Handan;WEI Wei;XUE Sha;State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences;School of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources;  
The loess hilly region has long been characterized by its fragile ecosystem and deteriorated environment.The local natural conditions are very sensitive to climate change.Dingxi,located in the southwest of the Loess Plateau,was selected as a typical example to detect the basic features of local climate variation.Linear equation,5-year moving-average,climatic tendency,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis methods were used to analyze the meteorological data.Results showed that:(1)the temperature gradually increased during the past 45 years and would continue to increase with the Hurst index greater than 0.5;the temperature was testified to rise by a clear abrupt in 1994;meanwhile,the increase rate of temperature differed in different seasons,extreme climate events were confirmed in Dingxi during the monitored years;it increased sharply in winter,showing an obvious warm-winter phenomenon;(2)the precipitation had decreased gradually since 1960 s,particularly during the summer and autumn periods,no abrupt changes were detected,and the Hurst index was less than 0.5,indicating that the precipitation will tend to increase in the forthcoming years.Generally,the climate in Dingxi region possibly will transfer from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目“黄土丘陵区坡面尺度不同整地方式的生态水文效应”(41371123)
【CateGory Index】: P467
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