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《ACTA ECOLOGICA SINICA》 1999-04
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Spatio temporal explicit interactive model for forecasting the pine caterpillar population dynamics

ZHOU Guo Fa 1,XU Ru Mei 1,LI Tian Sheng 2 (1.College of Biological Sciences,Beijing,100875;2.Institute of Forestry Protection,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing,100091)  
Based on the spatial temporal characteristics of interaction of pine caterpillar larvae population,a three dimensional correlogram and spatially mixture regression model was proposed.The correlogram includes both spatial and temporal correlation analysis,the forecast model includes three components,temporal and spatial auto regression,and spatio temporal trend surface.As for the forecasting of pine caterpillar density distribution,both temporal correlation and the intensity of spatial interaction were determined by correlogram.The forecasted larvae density of pine caterpillar has the similar trend,both temporally and spatially,as the sampled density in the field.The resultant distribution of larvae density can provide an easy using image for IPM.
【CateGory Index】: S431
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