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《Hydrology》 2005-03
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Feasibility Analysis of Applying 24h Precipitation Forecasts from the Central Meteorological Observatory

WANG Ben-de, ZHU Yong-ying, ZHANG Gai-hong, ZHOU Hui-cheng (Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)  
This paper discusses the necessity and importance of applying precipitation forecasts to reservoir operation, makes statistical analysis of the rainfall forecasting precision in yes/no and grade and the experiential distribution according to the day-precipitation and the 24h precipitation forecast data of 44 cities reported by Central Meteorological Observatory during 1999~2003. Curve fitting analysis is made to determine the distribution law of the different grade precipitation forecasts, so as to give reference for different reservoirs. The analysis result shows that forecasting accuracy for no rain is higher than that for others, which may be applied to reservoir operation.Although the forecasting accuracy for light rain is low, the frequency of light rain and no rain is high. Its information can also be used for reservoir operation.
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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