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《Power System and Clean Energy》 2015-11
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Application of the Time Series Based on the Seasonal Decomposition in the Main Transformer's Defect Rate Prediction

LI Xun;ZHANG Hongzhao;YAO Senjing;HUANG Ronghui;LIU Shungui;Lü Qishen;ZHANG Lin;Shenzhen Power Supply Co., Ltd.;  
Aiming at the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of the main transformer defect rate series and the seasonal characteristics of the occurrence of the main trans-former defects, this paper proposes that the defect rate of the main transformer be predict by combining the seasonal decomposition of the main transformer defect rate series and time-series ARIMA prediction to explore more effective defect data.First of all, the original series is pre-processed, and it is broken into a series of different model components, which can highlight the local feature information of the original main transformer defect rate series; Secondly, each component is analyzed and according to its change law, the mathematical model is set up using time series method and prediction is made. This method can not only simplify the model built but also reduce the interference and the coupling between the different components. Finally the predicted value of each component is added up to obtain the predicted value of the defect rate. The numerical example results show that the proposed method has good prediction effect.
【Fund】: 南方电网公司重点科技项目(2013科资0038)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM407
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【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 1 Hits
1 YANG Jia-hua1,YANG Zhen-rui1,LU Jun2,JIANG Chen3(1.Urban Power Supply Company,Shanghai Electric Power Company,Shanghai 200080,China;2.Materials Branch of Shanghai Jiulong Electric Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200080,China;3.Shanghai Tenglong Electric Group Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200001,China);Risk Assessment Research on Power Transformers Based on Risk Probability for Power Transformer[J];Power System and Clean Energy;2012-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 ZHAI Jing-jing;KANG Feng-qin;School of Electric Power Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology;Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions Collaborative Innovation Center for Intelligent Technology and Equipment in Distribution Network;Yancheng Power Supply Company;;Risk Assessment of Operation and Maintenance on Power Transformer Components based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process[J];Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology(Natural Science Edition);2015-02
2 XIAO Sheng 1,ZHANG Jian-hua 2,XIAO He 3(1.Jiangxi Electric Power Company,Nanchang 330077,Jiangxi,China;2.North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;3.Ganzhou Electrical Power Company,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi,China);Vulnerability Assessment of a Regional Power Grid Based on Complex Network Theory and Risk Theory[J];Power System and Clean Energy;2013-06
3 ZHAO Xu-tong;SHEN Qian;XU Jia-xiang;YANG Chao;LIU Lin;Institute of Electronic Information and Electric Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University;Jinan Electric Power Company;Xi'an Power Supply Bureau;Suzhou Power Supply Company;Zibo Electric Power Company;;Fault Diagnosis for Power Transformer Based on IEC Three-ratio and Extension Association with Combined Weights[J];Power System and Clean Energy;2013-08
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 5 Hits
1 CHEN Gen-yong1, SHI Jing-tian1,MAO Xiao-bo1, CHEN Xiao-yi2, YAO Xiao-ming2, PENG Bao-hong2 (1. School of Electrical Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2. Xuchang Power Supply Bureau, Xuchang 461000, China);Study on the method of short-term load forecasting considering the accumulation effect of temperature[J];Power System Protection and Control;2009-16
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5 LIANG Bo-yuan1,LIU Wei2,YANG Xin-tong1(1.School of Electric and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China; 2.Hebei Electric Power Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050021,Hebei Province,China);Transformer Condition Assessment and Residual Life Prediction[J];Power System and Clean Energy;2010-11
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