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《Journal of The China Railway Society》 1992-03
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THE STUDY OF PREDICTION FOR DEBRIS FLOW CAUSED BY RAINSTORM

Tan Bingyan Yang Dawen Shi Shengguo (Southwest Branch, Scientific Research Institute of MOR, Chengdu)  
When the compositional effect of the two systems—rainfall and earth's surface environment—goes beyond a certain limit, the debris flow caused by rainfall occurs. In this paper, according to the observed data from 64 gully-events in the Ganluo Experimental Area along the Chengdu-Kunming Railway Line from 1989 to 1990, the compositional discriminant of the two systems for predicting whether the debris flow caused by rainstorm occurs has been established. The compositional discriminant is verified through the observed data from about 75 debris flow gully-events along the railways in the Southwest, Northwest and Northeast of China since 1960. The satisfactory results show that the compositional discriminant given in this paper is of typical representativeness and higher precision and can be considered as the prediction model for predicting debris flow occurence.
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