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《Journal of Tianjin University》 2009-05
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Analysis on Wet-Dry and Compensative Characteristics of Regional Rainfall

MAO Hui-hui1,LI Jian-zhu1,WANG Xiao-yun2(1.School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.China Water Resources Beifang Investigation,Design and Research Company Limited,Tianjin 300222,China)  
Through analysis of the annual rainfall data from 1960 to 2005 of 18 rainfall stations in Beisan River network in Tianjin,wet-dry year was determined;probabilities of continuous wet years and dry years,and stable probability were calcu-lated;and finally,regional compensative characteristics were analyzed via Kriging model and set pair theory.The result shows that the occurence of two continuous normal years is most probable.The alternation of wet-dry years of Beiyun River Basin is more frequent than those of the other two basins.There is synchronism of precipitation with positive correlation among the three basins,which means that the self-producing runoff goes against the compensative regulation,and is likely to result in regional flood disaster and water shortage.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB14B05);; 天津市科技发展计划资助项目(OYFSYSF602400)
【CateGory Index】: P333
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