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《Statistics & Decision》 2019-24
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An Improved Method for Estimation of Failure Probability in Weibull Distribution Without Failure Date

Li Shuang;Li Yunfei;Gao Haijun;College of Mathematics and Information, China West Normal University;  
When the distribution distribution curve method is used to estimate the reliability parameters of Weibull distribution data without failure, the most important thing is to estimate the failure probability [PI(I =1,2... k)]. The accuracy of failure probability estimation determines the accuracy of the final reliability parameter estimation and the reliability estimation. Making use of the Bayes theory, that is, the posterior distribution is the adjustment of the prior distribution, and based on the Bayes multilayer estimation, this paper proposes a posterior distribution of the post failure probability to modify the prior distribution of the prior time failure probability, namely the method of correcting the value upper bounds of the failure probability at the truncation time. Through the specific example of bearing experiment, the paper verifies the robustness and feasibility of the proposed method.
【Fund】: 四川省教育厅自然科学重点项目(13ZA0016);; 西华师范大学英才科研基金项目(17YC381)
【CateGory Index】: O21
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