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《Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica》 2013-02
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ANN BASED IRRADIANCE FORECAST OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANT AND TWO DIMENSIONS VARIABLE SCALE MODIFICATION METHOD FOR THE FORECAST VALUE

Mi Zengqiang;Wang Fei;Yang Guang;Wang Zhe;Su Shi;Yu Bo;Zhang Liang;Yang Qixun;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University);Jinan Power Supply Bureau;Yunnan Electric Power Test and Research Institute (Group) Co.,Ltd.Electric Power Research Institute;State Key Laboratory of PV Materials and Technology(Yingli Group Co.Ltd);  
Two dimensions variable scale modification method for irradiance forecast value of PV power plant and improvement measures of ANN based irradiance forecast model were presented.Firstly,ambient temperature and ahargana were added as inputs to make the model fit the rules of irradiance variation better and improve its predictive performance and generalization ability.Secondly,the complexity of the forecast model can be reduced and its robustness and adaptability were enhanced by the dimensionality reduction of multidimensional historical data input through the appropriate mathematical transformation.Thirdly,irradiance forecast values were modified through the reference value and corresponding weight coefficients which were defined based on different modification scales,weather types and radiation attenuation degree by using historical data.The simulation results verify the rationality of the improvement measures and the effectiveness of the modification method.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(51277075);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助重点项目(11ZG09);; 河北省自然科学基金(E2012502047);; 河北省科技支撑计划重点项目(12213913D);; 中国南方电网公司重点科技项目(2011ZD24)
【CateGory Index】: TM615
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