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《Review of Investment Studies》 2011-07
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The Determinants and Dynamic Properties of China' s Urban Housing Prices

Lu Jianxin,Miao Jianjun  
This article analyzes the dynamics of housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities'(LMSCs) in China between 1997 and 2007 from both theoretical and empirical levels and investigates the rolse of different urban factors in determining housing prices.The findings are:(1) China's urban housing prices exhibit strong serial correlation and weak mean reversion;(2) user costs,regional index of marketization,and transactions price indices of land have a significant effect on serial correlation of housing prices;(3) real incomes,construction cost,and the regional index of marketization have a significant effect on mean reversion; (4) almost all of the urban fitted values for parameters lie in the convergent oscillatory region,and the amplitudes of eastern cities are generally higher than those of middle and western cities;(5) the average amplitudes of housing prices in 35 LMSCs have shown a enlargering trend since 1999,especially in 2007,but the frequency changed little.
【Fund】: 国家社科基金项目(“住房价格波动的时空特征、传导机理与金融风险研究”项目号:11CJY034);; 中国博士后科学基金项目(“内外部资本市场互动关系及其政策效应” 项目号:20080440588);; 中南财经政法大学青年教师创新项目(“房价泡沫与银行稳定研究”项目号:2010032)的资助
【CateGory Index】: F293.3;F224
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