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《Desert and Oasis Meteorology》 2013-01
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Verification of the Highest and Lowest Temperature Forecast at 15 Stations in Xinjiang

JIA Lihong1,LU Xinyu1,CUI Caixia1,TANG Ye1,WANG Yi2(1.Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory,Urumqi 830002,China;2.Xinjiang Meteorological Information Center,Urumqi 830002,China)  
The highest and lowest temperature forecast at 15 cities in Xinjiang was verified by use of the statistical methods.The results showed as follows.(1)The highest temperature forecast accuracy was higher than the lowest temperature and both was rising annually.(2)The forecast accuracy reduced along with extended forecast period.The forecast accuracy of six stations,including Kelamayi,Turpan,Hetian,Atushi,Kashgar and Hami,was higher than the average for 24,48,72 hour forecast period(.3)The temperature forecast in summer and autumn was generally better than in winter and spring,the highest temperature forecast was the best in summer and the worst in winter,the lowest temperature forecast was the best in autumn and the worst in spring(.4) The average SST of forecasters subjective forecast was the same as the guidance forecast of China Meteorological Observatory(CMO) in winter of 2012.In contrast to the temperature forecast accuracy of CMO,Kelamayi and Atushi was higher,but Akesu and Aletai was lower.
【Fund】: 公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201106007、GYHY201106025联合资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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