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《Desert and Oasis Meteorology》 2013-04
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Application Test of ECMWF Fine Grid Model LSP Products in Heavy Snowstorms in Northern Xinjiang

ZHANG Junlan;LI Yuanyuan;ZHANG Chao;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory;  
ECMWF fine grid NWP products(0.25°×0.25°)has been used in Xinjiang since April 2012.In this article,the forecast results of the ECMWF fine grid model LSP products in three heavy snowstorms occurred in the winter of 2012 in Xinjiang are analyzed and tested.The results show that: the LSP's prediction of the quantity of heavy snowstorms is generally less than the observation,and the forecasting results one day in advance is better than two days and more early more helpful.Although the predicted heavy snowstorms' start time is 3 hours earlier,the end time is fairly accurate The LSP products of the heavy snowstorms two days and 12 hours in advance have a high accuracy rate and low false rate in accumulative total precipitation.The LSP products often are more accurate on area and magnitude where snowstorm covers a region with dense observatories.The analysis of the test results can be usedto forecast the heavy snowstorms in northern Xinjiang,particularly offer a reference to better using the ECMWF fine grid NWP products.
【Fund】: 科技部公益性行业科研专项(GYHY201106007);; 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(sqi2012004)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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