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《Desert and Oasis Meteorology》 2014-06
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Prediction Effect Test of ECMWF Fine Grid Model for 2 Meters Temperature in Xinjiang and Its Surrounding Areas

LIU Chunfeng;XU Huan;SONG Xueming;LI Aqiao;ZHANG Dingwen;Changji Meteorological Bureau;Yili Meteorological Bureau;Hutubi Meteorological Bureau;  
The forecast result of ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature from January to December2013 in Xinjiang and its surrounding areas was evaluated. The result showed that ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature forecast was systematically lower, and the effect became worse with the increase of forecast period. Compared with the statistical tests of the absolute errors for temperature forecast in 72 h, 96 ~168 h and 192 ~240 h, the absolute errors and precision of forecast within 72 hours which have a certain reference value for actual temperature forecast outperform the other two leading time, followed by the forecasting precision within 96 ~168 h, and result for 192 ~240 h forecasting was left behind among the three predicted time. In addition, the accuracy of temperature prediction showed that the ECMWF fine grid for 2 m temperature was best in southern Xinjiang basin, northern Xinjiang basin for the second place, and the lowest in western Mongolia.
【Fund】: 新疆气象局科技项目(MS201415)
【CateGory Index】: P456.7
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