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《Desert and Oasis Meteorology》 2015-05
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Test of ECMWF Refined Net Numerical 2 m Temperature Forecast Data in Temperature Forecasting in Urumqi

ZHANG Chao;LI Na;JIA Jian;Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory;Urumqi Meteorological Bureau;  
Using ECMWF refined net numerical 2 m temperature forecast data from July 2011 to June 2014, grid mapping site and bilinear interpolation method are used to select the optimized reference points, finally apply the synoptic testing method to test its temperature forecasting ability in different seasons and different types of weather in Urumqi. The result shows that it is helpful to making nest 24 hours and 48 hours temperature forecast, The next 24 hours prediction accuracy of annual maximum and minimum temperature is 74% ~75%, the next 48 hours forecast accuracy is10%, lower than the next 24 h; forecast accuracy of temperature is better in rainy days and snowy days, worse in foggy days; the actual minimum temperature is significantly below the forecast temperature; the forecast accuracy of maximum temperature is better than the forecast accuracy when southeastly wind happens; when the temperature inversion is forecast, the maximum temperature forecast cannot be trusted, but the minimum temperature forecast is trusty. The accuracy and stability of ECMWF refined net numerical 2 m temperature forecast data are better than guidance forecast data from the National Meteorological Center of CMA. The longer the forecast period is, the more obvious advantages there are.
【Fund】: 中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2014009);; 中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2014-078)共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
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