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《Systems Enging-theory Methodology Application》 2001-01
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Study on Forcast of Financial Failure of Stock Market Corporations

HUANG Yan, LI Yuan xu (School of Management, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China)  
How to prevent financial failure by making effectively full use of the disclosed corporation financial information is a important goal of sustainable operation and development of enterprises, which requires scientific and accurate forcast before the arising of financial failure. The comprehensive warning financial indexes system of stock market corporations is constructed in this paper. By taking corporations of stock markets of Shanghai and Shenzheng as samples, we have set up forcasting models of industrial corporations in the stock market of china through multivariate statistical analyses, the Z value of each corporation has been shown. Meanwhile, we have validated the model with other test samples, the results demostrated that the procedure of our calculation are both effective and practical. In conclusion, we discuss some existing problems regarding the disclosure of financial information and its impact on the forcasting precision of the established model.
【CateGory Index】: F832.5
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