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《Systems Engineering-theory & Practice》 2003-03
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The Construction and Application of Combination Forecasting Model in Chinese Energy Consumption System

LU Qi, GU Pei-liang, QIU Shi-ming(School of Manegement, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)  
The theory of combination forecasting and the skill of modeling are practicable in complex economic system with uncompleted information. Because energy consumption system is of complexity and non-linearity, firstly, we respectively make use of grey forecasting, neural network and multiple regression to construct models depending on historical data of Chinese energy consumption, as well as analyze and compare the advantages with the disadvantages of these models. Secondly, we propose the combination forecasting model of energy consumption in future by using standard variance to allocate the weights. Finally, we apply this kind of model to forecast Chinese energy consumption in following 20 years. The result shows that we can take the model as an effective tool to predict Chinese future energy consumption.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金 ( 70 0 71 0 4 1 )
【CateGory Index】: F224.7
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