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《Systems Engineering-theory & Practice》 2005-09
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Comparative Study on Models of Financial Distress Prediction in Chinese Listed Firms

XIE Ji-gang~1, QIU Zheng-ding~1, HAN Yan-jun~1, MO Li~2(1.Institute of Information Science, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 China; 2.School of Finance, Central University of Finance & Economics, Beijing 100081 China)  
This study has the Chinese listed firm as its research object. Using the special treatment (ST) received by listed firms due to their abnormal financial performance as the indicator of financial distress, this study firstly constructs statistic and neural network models by cross validation techniques. Then, with the independent prediction data set, the study compares the performances of statistic models with those of neural network models. It has been shown that the statistic models are superior to neural network models in accuracy for two years prior to special treatment, and vice-versa for three years prior to special treatment. It has also been shown that the results of models' performances, which are got on the test set, are not reliable.
【CateGory Index】: F275;
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