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《Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice》 2012-08
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Method of route airliner price forecast based onⅠ-GM(O,N) model

HE Sha-wei,LIU Si-feng,FANG Zhi-geng (College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China; Institute for Grey Systems Studies,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China)  
Due to the difficulty in obtaining information in the conceptual design phase,this paper presents a route airliner price forecast method based on I-GM(0,N) model for vacant point forecast in characteristic sequence.After selecting price-affecting factors as well as setting the Benchmark Ranking Series based on Grey Relational Analysis,the listing prices of X aircraft,a currently developed route airliner in China,is forecasted by I-GM(0,N).Proved to have good forecast and simulation results in a case study of X aircraft price forecast and price simulation of some current route airliners,this method is practical in price forecast of route airliners in conceptual design phase.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(90924022 70971064 70701017 70901041 71171113) 国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流(71111130211);; 国家社科重大项目(10zd&014);;
【CateGory Index】: F416.5;N941.5;O242.1
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