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《Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice》 2013-11
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A regulated method of initial spare based on the Bayes method

LI Da-wei;ZHANG Zhi-hua;LIU Tian-hua;Department of Weapon Engineering,Naval University of Engineering;  
Because of the environment and so on,the spare number of initial spare scheme can't meet the equipment support requirement when the equipments are in incipient operation.Aim at these statuses, the initial spare scheme was used as prior information.And then the regulate method of spare in incipient operation was proposed based on the Bayes method.Finally,the simulation example shows that the method proposed is feasibility.Comparing with classical method,the method proposed can improve the accuracy of estimation and has good steadiness.So the more rational spare scheme can be formed.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(50775218);; 总装预研项目(51327020105 51304010206);; 海军工程大学博士生创新基金(HGBSJJ2011009)
【CateGory Index】: E91
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