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《Systems Engineering and Electronics》 2002-04
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An Improved Methodology of Missile Cost Estimation

YANG Qing\+1, WANG Liang\+1, YE Ding You\+2, FU Zhi min\+3 (1. College of Astronautics, Northwestern Polytechnology University, Xi’an 710072, China; 2. Fourth Academy, CASTC, Xi′an 710025, China; 3. Second Academy, CASIC, Beijing 100854, China)  
This paper adopts an ANFIS to set up a missile cost estimation model, with 22 missile cost performance data of U.S.A. army as primitive samples and finds out cost driver. By means of gray GM(0, N )model, this paper creates additional training sampls to training network. The result shows that, compared with the linear regression method, this method can greatly improve the accuracy of cost estimation and reflect the trend of cost change better. The network has a small check error and a strong generality. The combination of ANFIS and gray model can solve effectively the modeling of nonlinear function with small sample.
【CateGory Index】: TJ760
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