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《Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)》 2011-01
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Multi-model compositive MOS method application of fine temperature forecast

ZHANG Xiu-nian1,2,CAO Jie1,YANG Shu-yu2,QI Ming-hui2(1.Department of Atmosphere,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China; 2.Yunnan Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China)  
By using T213 and ECMWF model products,the multi-model compositive MOS method has been researched and tested in temperature forecasting.And it has been compared to the single-model MOS method also.It has been found that multi-model method overmatch the single-model method in forecasting obviously.The multi-model MOS method can use useful information and advantages of multiple models' products and make better forecast.In system designing,the identification of factors has been drawn into to solve the problem of multi-model data complexity.During the test,it has been found there are some obvious differences of temperature forecasting in each season.Especially the summer's level is higher than the other three seasons.The main reason is that the daily minimum and maximum temperature changed less in summer then in the others.It makes the forecast to be more easily.But the MOS method still devotes great contributions.
【Fund】: 云南省社会发展科技计划(2009CA023);; 国家气象局2010行业专项“地形复杂地区的MOS预报研究”;; 2009业务能力建设重点项目“强降水天气过程主客观预报方法研究及系统建设”共同资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.3
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