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《Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology》 2010-02
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Forecasting Short-time Traffic Flow for Beijing 2nd Ring Road Using Chaos Theory

GUO Min1,LAN Jin-hui2,XIAO Xiang2,LU Hai-feng2(1.Beijing Traffic Management Bureau,Beijing 100037,China;2.School of Information Engineering,University of Science and Technology,Beijing 100083,China)  
With the ever-increasing motor vehicle population,traffic congestion is a severe problem of urban traffic.Traffic flow forecasting may help the traffic management branch to formulate relevant policies,optimize traffic management and solve the traffic problem,at last release the traffic pressure in a certain extent.It is one of the important issues of intelligent transportation systems.Short-time traffic flow forecasting is the main technology of traffic control and vehicle-based navigation.This paper points out that transportation system is a dissipative system and the chaos exists in traffic status.It restores dynamical systems with chaos and fractal theory and predicts the traffic flow using multivariate time series of local prediction method.The basic traffic data are collected to test the effectiveness of the model,and the evaluation index of different time interval of the traffic flow series is analyzed.The proposed method has high prediction accuracy within 2 or 5 minutes level.
【Fund】: 北京市自然科学基金(4102038);; 北京市科技计划(D07020601400704)
【CateGory Index】: U491.14
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