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《Rock and Soil Mechanics》 2009-05
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Prediction model for rockburst based on acoustic emission time series

PENG Qi1,ZHANG Ru1,XIE He-ping1,QU Hong-lue1,LONG Ang2(1.College of Water Resources and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;2.China Three Gorges Project Corporation,Yichang 443002,China)  
Based on the features of acoustic emission(AE) time series monitored for rockburst,adopting the wavelet neural network and catastrophe theory,a new rockburst prediction model is established.Firstly,a wavelet neural network model based on the AE monitored is established to forecast the future AE.Secondly,a catastrophe prediction model for rockburst is founded based on AE forecasted.A practical example shows that the predicted AE time series has high prediction accuracy;and rockburst prediction are consistent with field situation.It is shown that the model has the advantages of high forecasting accuracy and strong practicality.
【Fund】: 国家基础研究发展规划(973)项目(No.2002CB412705);; 国家自然科学基金创新群体项目(No.50221402);; 国家自然科学基金委雅砻江水电开发联合研究基金重点项目(No.50639100);; 国家自然科学基金项目:“岩石灾变破裂过程中能量耗散与释放规律的研究”(No.50579042)
【CateGory Index】: O382.2
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