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《QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEORLOLGY》 2000-S1
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EVALUATION OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION

Wang Shaowu Zhu Jinhong (Department of Geophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871)  
The methods for evaluating the level of short term climate prediction are introduced. Then the characteristics of relative coefficient ( R ), skill scores ( S ) and accuracy ( P ) are compared, and the level of present prediction is shown. Finally, the predictability of short term climate forecast is discussed, and it is pointed out that the theoretical limit of the lead time in monthly and seasonal scale prediction is about 6 12 months and that of the accuracy ( P ) is 80% 85%.
【Fund】: “九五”国家攻关课题!《我国短期气候预测系统的研究》96-90 8-0 4 -0 1专题资助
【CateGory Index】: P456.1
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