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《QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEORLOLGY》 2000-S1
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AN OBJECTIVE METHOD OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST ABOUT PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION IN RAINY SEASON

Zhou Jiabin Zhang Haifu (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029)  
A method of ensemble forecast about precipitation distribution in rainy season is presented. The central cluster technique proposed by Yao Zhensheng is used to determine the stations which can be represented by a designated station. The mean percent departures of rainfall in these stations are evaluated and are used as predictands for the designated station. Then the prediction equation is constructed using the stepwise algorithm and the square sum of prediction errors. Finally, an ensemble forecast experiment is made by four models used in the operational forecasts in the National Center of China. The score of each forecasting chart is evaluated. And the results show that the score of ensemble forecast is higher than that of any other models mentioned. And the score of ensemble forecast for anomalous flooding over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Nengjiang River valley in 1998 is also higher.
【Fund】: 国家“九五”重中之重项目!“我国短期气候预测系统的研究”第四课题 ( 96-90 8-0 4 )的资助
【CateGory Index】: P457.6
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