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《Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology》 2004-02
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OBJECTIVE ELEMENT FORECASTS AT NMC——A MOS SYSTEM

Liu Huanzhu Zhao Shengrong Lu Zhishan Zhao Cuiguang Yang Yuanqin (National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081) Li Yuhua (Weather Service of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031)  
The meteorological elements such as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and visibility are predicted for the whole China by using the equations derived from the MOS (model output statistics) technique. The routine operational forecasts are made once daily for approximately 2230 sites. The qualities of objective element forecasts are affected by the data processing of predictors and predictands, the choice of parameters before making equation and also the choice of predictors. Therefore tremendous and careful efforts are needed. The results of the forecast verification indicate that the short-range forecasts of max/min temperature and max/min relative humidity are reliable in most cases, but still need improvement. However, the forecast of precipitation is far from satisfaction. Its improvement requires the proper selection of predictors and full incorporations of various information obtained from different observation chances.
【Fund】: 国家气象中心NMC7893 0 2YF2 0 0 1A 0 2“基于数值预报产品释用技术客观预报系统的开发”课题资助
【CateGory Index】: P414
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