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《China Safety Science Journal》 2005-06
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Survival Probability-based Dynamic Vehicle Age Distribution Model

YANG Fang YU Lei,Prof. SONG Guo-hua WANG Wen PEI Wen-wen (School of Traffic & Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University)  
Vehicle age distribution (VAD) is an important factor reflecting the vehicle aging degree and determining the scrapping time limit. The data needed by available VAD models are rather big which are difficult to obtain in most cities in China. A survival probability-based dynamic model following Weibull probability distribution is proposed for calculation and forecast of VAD, by which annual vehicle age distribution could be derived from total number of registered vehicles and total number of newly registered vehicles (or number of scrapped vehicles), and the age distribution in future years could be predicted dynamically. The model is exemplified by the data of cars in Beijing and is proved to be feasible showing the data needed is rather small and the calculation is rather simple. The model might be applied to those regions with limited data in where the vehicle registration information is incomplete or unavailable, and is generalized in some extent. The validity and sensitivity analysis need to be conducted in future.
【CateGory Index】: U491
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