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《NORTHWESTERN SEISMOLOGICAL JOURNAL》 2000-02
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THE STATISTICAL STUDY ON SEISMOLOGICAL ANOMALIES IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION OF CHINA

WU Fu chun, XU Jun qi, ZHANG Xian, DONG Xing hong (Seismological Bureau of Shaanxi Province,Xi'an 710068,China)  
By using various seismological anomalies obtained from the Meeting of National Seismological Consideration (MNSC) from 1988 to 1996,the relationship between the anomalies in a certain year and the earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland in the next year is studied.The data of 932 anomalies obtained by more than 46 prediction methods of the seismometry in the past nine years show that the number of the prediction methods of seismometry increased from 1988 to 1996.The corresponding ratios for different seismological anomalies with moderate or larger earthquakes are between 0 and 48%,the average value is about 28%,which is numerically equal to the corrective ratio of the forecasting regional number in Chinese earthquake prediction.The methods of the statistical prediction,the strengthening of regional stress field,the seismic bands,the modulation ratio of small earthquakes and the b value have higher corresponding ratios with earthquakes,and the methods of the anomalous calm of seismic activity,the fractal dimension,the anomalous earthquake swarm,the c value and the earthquake windows have lower corresponding ratios with earthquakes.The year when there is the highest forecasting ratio is 1989,and the year when there is the lowest forecasting ratio is 1990.As the same corrective ratio of the forecasting regional number,the corresponding ratio of seismological anomaly does not increase with time.The questions such as the physical meaning of every seismological prediction method and the inner relationship between the seismological anomaly and the earthquake,etc.will be studied further in the future.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金资助项目!(95 0 7 431)
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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