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《Northwestern Seismological Journal》 2008-02
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Discussion on Moderate-strong Earthquake Prediction in Xinjiang

WANG Xiao-rong,LI Zhi-hai(Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China)  
With prediction methods which have clear physical-meaning,are less related each other and with catalogue,the possibility location and condition of moderate-strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region are discussed.The result shows that the low frequency of M3 earthquake lasting longer than 3 months,M5 earthquake quietness lasting 6 months reflect mid-short term character of occurring M≥6 earthquakes,and corresponding rate is greater than 83%.Taking M4 earthquakes occurring within 3 months after M6 earthquake during the earthquake active phase as the response earthquake,the rate of occuring a mid-strong earthquake is 62% in the range of 250 km within one year,and 79% within 2 years.Taking low value-returning of b value in response region as possible occurring condition of prepared focal region,occurring rate is 75% within one year,and 92% within 2 years.
【Fund】: 新疆地震局基金(2006Z03)
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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