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《NORTHWESTERN SEISMOLOGICAL JOURNAL》 1994-03
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THE TIME-SPACE CHARACTERISTICS OF r_m AND Sr_m FLUCTUATION INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARTHQUAKE SOURCE SYSTEM AND THE MID-SHORT-TERM STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Qin Baoyan;Zhang Xiaodong;Wang Yucang and Guo Xingquan(Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhou,SSB,China)  
By studying the fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(r_m)and the abnormal area of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated(Sr_m)in the earth-quake source system before strong earthquakes. The following results are gained:1.The fluctuation intensification of the ratio of small earthquakes modulated almostappears before strong earthquakes in the source and near source region or before mediumearthquakes in near source region and when the fluctuated times are three, the strongearthquake or mediutn earthquake will happen.2.r_m abnormal area(Sr_m)around source region shows the process from small to largearea and then,from large to small area before most.moderate earthquakes,therefore,we take the ratio of the minimum area of r_m anomaly to the maximum area of r_m anomaly asan index of the mid-short term earthquake prediction,according to statistics,the anomalyindex[λ]isλ=Sr_(min)/Sr_(max),[γ]=0.32+0.09 In some earthquakes,the Sr_m fluctuation intensificatiOn appears before earthquakes,this may be regarded as the result of weak adjusting ability of adjustment units around thesource region.3.The beginning time of r_m and Sr_m fluctuation intensification has a connection withmagnitude of earthquake,the bigger the magnitudes are,the earlier the fluctuation intensi-fication will appear.According to the statist.es of the time(t) from the beginning of Sr_mfluctuation intensification to earthquake occurrence and magnitude(M),the following for-mula is obtained:①Seismological Bureau of Qinghai Province.M=4.29+0.11t±0.33 4.There ordinarily appear three forms of r_m anomalies in the fiel dregion before strongearthquakes:random,fluctuating and declining.If there are three r_m fluctuation intensifica-tions,the strong earthquake will happen in the field.5.By using the principle of autonomous system and unautonomous system,the fluctu-ation of r_m and Sr_m adjustment region around the source before earthquake is explainedbriefly.
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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