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《Proceedings of the Csee》 2005-18
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A PREDICTIVE MODEL OF POWER SYSTEM BLACKOUT BASED ON SYNERGETIC THEORY

CAO Yi-jia,DING Li-jie,JIANG Quan-yuan,HAN Zhen-xiang(College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,Zhejiang Province,China)  
Power system blackout often occurs when one of the system components fails and further leads to a series of other components’ failure.This cascading failures spread rapidly until part of power grids break down ultimately.This paper investigates the mechanism of blackout and points out that in the process of blackout,subsystems of the power grids are always competitive and cooperative.This process behaves in a manner of self-organized criticality and can be forecasted.Based on the synergetic theory of self-organized criticality,a predictive model,synergetic predictive model,for power system blackout is proposed.Simulation results show that power system blackout exists self-organized criticality,and the proposed predictive model has good precision and can be used to analyze the mechanism of power system cascading failures and blackout.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2004CB217902)。~~
【CateGory Index】: TM711
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