Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Proceedings of the CSEE》 2008-14
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

A Vector Autoregression Model of Hourly Wind Speed and Its Applications in Hourly Wind Speed Forecasting

SUN Chun-shun,WANG Yao-nan,LI Xin-ran(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan Province,China)  
Short-term wind speed forecasting is important to the operation of grid-connected wind power generation systems.This paper outlined the value and methods of short-term wind speed forecasting.The characteristic of diurnal hourly wind speed variation has been thoroughly analyzed.A method named as vectorization of univariate hourly wind speed time series has been presented for eliminating diurnal nonstationary,and vectorized hourly wind speed was expressed as a vector autoregression(VAR) model.Finally,the VAR model was applied to forecast hourly wind speed.The results showed that the presented VAR model can yield satisfactory hourly wind speed forecast as long as 72 h ahead under normal weather conditions.The proposed method is suitable for eliminating the periodic nonstationary,and can be used in other time series modeling and forecasting.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(60775047);; 国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA04Z244);; 高校科技创新工程重大项目(706043)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM614
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHAO Chuan;CHEN Genjun;YE Hua;ZHU Mingle;WU Xiao;Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching and Controlling Center;Nanjing Nari-Relays Electric Co.Ltd.;College of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University;;Short-term wind power prediction methods considering the influence of terrain[J];应用科技;2015-06
2 YANG Jie;SHAO Rui;LIU Wei;School of Electrical Engineering, Henan Mechanical and Electric Engineering College;College of Electrical Engineering, Henan University of Technology;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company;;A Power Grid Concentration Method Considering the Construction and Its Operation Situations[J];电网与清洁能源;2015-09
3 DUAN Xuewei;WANG Ruiqi;WANG Zhaoxin;LANG Chengyu;SUN Shumin;ZHAO Peng;ZHENG Wei;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Research Institute;Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of UHV Transmission Technology and Equipment;State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company;Shangdong Zhongshi Yitong CO.,Ltd.;;Review of Wind Speed and Wind Power Prediction Methods[J];山东电力技术;2015-07
4 MA Xiao-bo;School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University;;Short-term wind power prediction based on wavelet analysis and BP neural network[J];电力科学与技术学报;2015-02
5 FU Ning;LIU Yongjie;Ulanqab Electric Power Supply Bureau;Xilingol Electric Power Bureau;;Design and Application of Wind Farm Output Prediction System[J];内蒙古电力技术;2015-03
6 CHEN Shaonan;CHEN Biyun;WEI Hua;REN Long;WEI Xingqiu;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Power System Optimization and Energy Technology (Guangxi University);;Mixed Half-cloud Modeling Method for Irregular Probability Distribution of Wind Speed[J];中国电机工程学报;2015-06
7 Li Li;Qi Yongsheng;Liu Shuo;Wang Ling;Institute of electric power, Inner Mongol University of Technology;;Wind power prediction based on wavelet PLS[J];可再生能源;2014-09
8 Dou Zhenhai;Yang Rengang;Zou Li;Tang Shi;Yu Maorong;Jiang Li;College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shandong University of Technology;School of Business, Shandong University of Technology;;Prediction method of wind speed on wind farm using optimal sub-set regression model[J];可再生能源;2014-08
9 ZHAO Hui;DANG Zhang-li;ZHAO Zhi-yuan;WANG Ju-jie;ZHANG Wen-yu;Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu, School of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University;;Hourly wind speed prediction based on wavelet decomposition and statistical model[J];兰州大学学报(自然科学版);2014-04
10 SHE Shensi;LI Zheng;CAI Xu;Wind Power Research Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University;;Research on Wind Speed Distribution Model of Wind Farm Based on Its Dynamic Space-Time Relation[J];电网技术;2014-06
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Xiao Cheng, Peng Guo School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206;Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Based On Support Vector Machine Of Fuzzy Information Granulation[A];[C];2013
2 LIU Yu,ZENG De-liang (State Key Laboratory for Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy SourcesNorth China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China);Research of Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Wavelet Packet Transform and Least Squares Support Vector Machine[A];[C];2012
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 8 Hits
1 CHEN Jin-fu,CHEN Hai-yan,DUAN Xian-zhong(College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,Hubei Province,China);Multi-Period Dynamic Optimal Power Flow in Wind Power Integrated System[J];中国电机工程学报;2006-03
2 DING Ming,ZHANG Li - jun,WU Yi - chun(Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China);Wind speed forecast model for wind farms based on time series analysis[J];电力自动化设备;2005-08
3 YANG Xiu-yuan 1, XIAO Yang2, CHEN Shu-yong 3 (1. Beijing Machinery Industry College, Haidian District, Beijing 100085, China; 2. Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering, Jilin 132012, Jilin Province, China; 3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100085, China);WIND SPEED AND GENERATED POWER FORECASTING IN WIND FARM[J];中国电机工程学报;2005-11
4 SHEN Hong, WANG Wei-sheng (China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China);A NEW METHOD FOR EVALUATING OPERATION OF WIND POWER PLANT[J];中国电机工程学报;2003-09
5 SHEN Hong, LIANG Jun, DAI Hui-Zhu (China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China);CALCULATION OF WIND FARM PENETRATION BASED ON POWER SYSTEM TRANSIENT STABILITY ANALYSIS[J];电网技术;2002-08
6 Wu Xueguang Chen Shuyong Dai Huizhu Electric Power Research Institute, Ministry of Electric Power Beijing, 100085 China;APPLICATION OF LEAST ERROR APPROACH TO ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES ANALYSIS OF WIND ENERGY RESOURSES IN WIND FARM[J];电网技术;1998-07
7 Zhao Hongwei (Chongqing University,Chongqing\ 630044\ China) Ren Zhen, Huang Wenying (South China Univ.of Technology Guangzhou\ 510641\ China);A Short Term Load Forecasting Method Based on PAR Model[J];中国电机工程学报;1997-05
8 Zhao Hongwei\ Ren Zhen \ Huang Wenying (Chongqing University\ Chongqing\ 630044\ China) (South China University of Technology);Short Term Load Forecasting Considering Weekly Period Based on PAR[J];中国电机工程学报;1997-03
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Dai Bingqi;Wang Zhe;Li Chunsheng;College of Automation Engineering, Qingdao University;Gaomi Electric Power Company;;Multi-Objective Coordinated Scheduling of Wind-storage Hybrid System based on Improved Particle Swam Optimization Algorithm[J];电气技术;2015-12
2 HAN Jiatong;PENG Huaiwu;LI Min;Inner Mongolia Power Exploration & Design Institute;Hohhot urban and rural construction Committee;College of Electrical Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology;;Assessment of Wind Farm Design Based on AHP Method[J];内蒙古工业大学学报(自然科学版);2015-04
3 ZHAO Chuan;CHEN Genjun;YE Hua;ZHU Mingle;WU Xiao;Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching and Controlling Center;Nanjing Nari-Relays Electric Co.Ltd.;College of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University;;Short-term wind power prediction methods considering the influence of terrain[J];应用科技;2015-06
4 ZHAO Yongning;YE Lin;College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University;;A Numerical Weather Prediction Feature Selection Approach Based on Minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance Strategy for Short-term Regional Wind Power Prediction[J];中国电机工程学报;2015-23
5 WANG Jing;SUN Xian;TANG Jing;Fang Yuan-jie;School of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, Chaohu College;State Grid Anhui Wuwei Electric Power Supply Co., Ltd;;RESEARCH ON THE APPLICATION OF COMBINATION PREDICTION MODEL TO SHORTTERM WIND POWER PREDICTION[J];巢湖学院学报;2015-06
6 HUANG Yun-hong;College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,China Three Gorges University;;Research Status of Interactions Between Large Scale Wind Power Integration and Power Grid Operation[J];通信电源技术;2015-06
7 LI Chunhua;JIANG Bisong;ZHOU Qinyong;GUO Chunyi;ZHAO Chengyong;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System With Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University);China Electric Power Research Institute;;HVDC Control Strategy and Reactive Power Switching Method for Wind Power Delivery[J];电网技术;2015-11
8 WANG Longhui;LI Yongguang;ZHOU Lü;MA Xinxia;ZHANG Lihua;Shanghai University of Electric Power;State Grid Hangzhou Power Supply Company;;Research on Maximum Wind Power Capacity Integrated Into Power Grids and Corresponding Countermeasures in China[J];上海电力学院学报;2015-05
9 Han Yajun;Li Taifu;Yang Xiaoqiang;School of Machinery and Electronic Technology,Chongqing Creation Vocational College;Department of Electrical and Information Engineering,Chongqing Institute of Science and Technology;;Short-term wind power prediction based on Logistic mapping neural network of phase space reconstruction[J];实验技术与管理;2015-10
10 LI Huiling;ZHANG Zhiqiang;TANG Xiaojun;ZHENG Chao;LI Shunxin;YANG Jingang;China Electric Power Research Institute;State Grid Jibei Electric Economic Research Institute;;Research on Optimal Capacity of Large Wind Power Considering Joint Operation With Pumped Hydro Storage[J];电网技术;2015-10
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 Ye Xiaoling;Liu Bo;Deng Hua;Xiao Yin;School of Information and Control, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology;;Short-term wind power prediction based on wavelet analysis and PSO optimized neural network[J];可再生能源;2014-10
2 JIANG Ping;HUO Yuchong;ZHANG Long;LUO Jianyu;LI Haifeng;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University;State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company;;A Wind Speed Time Series Model Based on Advanced First-order Markov Chain Approach[J];电力系统自动化;2014-19
3 DONG Lei;ZHOU Wenping;ZHANG Pei;LIU Guangyi;LI Weidi;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University;Accenture (China) Ltd;China Electric Power Research Institute;;Short-term Photovoltaic Output Forecast Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network Theory[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-S1
4 SHE Shensi;LI Zheng;CAI Xu;Wind Power Research Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University;;A Multi-Time Scale Wind Speed Modeling Method for Simulation of Wind Power Generation[J];电网技术;2013-09
5 LING Wuneng,HANG Naishan,LI Ruqi(School of Electrical Engineering,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China);Short-term wind power forecasting based on cloud SVM model[J];电力自动化设备;2013-07
6 Ma Jiaxin Xu Feiyun Huang Ren(School of Mechanical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China);A linear and nonlinear auto-regressive model and its application in modeling and forecasting[J];东南大学学报(自然科学版);2013-03
7 TANG Jian 1,2 CHAI Tian-You 1,3 YU Wen 4 ZHAO Li-Jie 5 1.State Key Laboratory of Synthetical Automation for Process Industries(Northeastern University),Shenyang 110004,China 2.Unit 92941,PLA,Huludao 125001,China 3.Research Center of Automation,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110004,China 4.Departamento de Control Automatico,CINVESTAV-IPN,Av.IPN 2508,México D.F.07360,México 5.College of Information Engineering,Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang 110142,China;On-line KPLS Algorithm with Application to Ensemble Modeling Parameters of Mill Load[J];自动化学报;2013-05
8 LI Li,LIU Yongqian,YANG Yongping,HAN Shuang(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Changping District,Beijing 102206,China);Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on CFD Pre-calculated Flow Fields[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-07
9 CHANG Rui ZHU Rong LIU Yanxiang HE Xiaofeng Public Meteorological Service Centre of CMA,Beijing 100081;Nowcasting Model of Wind Speed Based on Mean Generating Function for Wind Farms[J];气象;2013-02
10 WANG Songyan1,LI Bijun2,YU Jilai1,XU Taishan2(1.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,Heilongjiang Province,China; 2.State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210003,Jiangsu Province,China);Analysis on Time-Varying Characteristics of Probability Error in Forecast of Wind Speed and Wind Power[J];电网技术;2013-04
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 3 Hits
1 CAO Bin;LIU Wenxia;WANG Ruizhe;ZHANG Jianhua;School of Electrical & Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University;;A Generation and Load Integrated Scheduling Method Considering Grid Operation Risk[J];电网技术;2015-09
2 SHE Shensi;MIAO Yong;Technology Center,Shanghai Electric Power Transmission & Distribution Group;Wind Power Research Center,Shanghai Jiaotong University;;Fault Diagnosis of Wind Turbine Generator Based on Self-learning Probability Model[J];电器与能效管理技术;2015-15
3 YANG Junyou;CUI Jia;XING Zuoxia;WANG Haixin;WANG Gang;School of New Energy Engineering,Shenyang University of Technology;Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Supply Co.Ltd.;;Reactive Power Control Strategy for Dispersed Wind Farm Considering Wind Power Forecasting[J];电力系统自动化;2015-13
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHENG Guo-qiang1,BAO Hai1,CHEN Shu-yong2 (1.School of Electrical Engineering, North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206, China; 2.China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China);AMENDING ALGORITHM FOR WIND FARM PENETRATION OPTIMIZATION BASED ON APPROXIMATE LINEAR PROGRAMMING METHOD[J];中国电机工程学报;2004-10
2 WU Jun-ling1,ZHOU Shuang-xi1,SUN Jian-feng1,CHEN Shou-sun1,MENG Qing-he2 (1.Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China; 2.North China Power Engineering Co., Ltd.,Xicheng District,Beijing 100011,China);ANALYSIS ON MAXIMUM POWER INJECTION OF WIND FARM CONNECTED TO POWER SYSTEM[J];电网技术;2004-20
3 LI Jing~1, SONG Jia-hua~2, WANG Wei-sheng~3 (1. North China University of Electric Power, Baoding 071003,China; 2. Northeast Institute of Electric Power Engineering, Jilin 132012,China; 3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085,China);MODELING AND DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF VARIABLE SPEED WIND TURBINE WITH LARGE CAPACITY[J];中国电机工程学报;2004-06
4 DONG An-zheng , ZHAO Guo-fan (State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China);APPLICATIONS OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS IN WIND SPEED ESTIMATION FROM SHORT-TERM RECORDS[J];工程力学;2003-05
5 ;Summary on studies of operation and planning of wind power generation systems[J];国际电力;2003-03
6 ZHANG Ying, GAO Zhong-wen(Computer & Control College, Harbin Univ. Sci. Tech., Harbin 150080, China);The Load Forecasting of Electric Energy Based on Time Sequence and Neural Network[J];哈尔滨理工大学学报;2003-01
7 LEI Ya-zhou, WANG Wei-sheng, YIN Yong-hua, DAI Hui-zhu (China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China);WIND POWER PENETRATION LIMIT CALCULATION BASED ON CHANCE CONSTRAINED PROGRAMMING[J];中国电机工程学报;2002-05
8 LEI Ya-zhou, WANG Wei-sheng, YIN Yong-hua, DAI Hui-zhu (China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100085, China);ANALYSYS OF WIND POWER VALUE TO POWER SYSTEM OPERATION[J];电网技术;2002-05
9 CHEN Xing ying 1,2 , LIU Meng jue 1, SHAN Yuan da 2 (1.Department of Electric Power, He hai University, Nanjing 210098,China; 2.Department of Electric Power, South east University, Nanjing 210096,China);APPLICATION OF SUPER CONDUCTING MAGNETIC ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEM--SMES IN WIND POWER SYSTEM OF NETWORK FORMING[J];中国电机工程学报;2001-12
10 LEI Ya zhou, WANG Wei sheng, YIN Yong hua, DAI Hui zhu (Electric Power Research Institute of China, Beijing 100085, China);AN OPTIMIZATION METHOD FOR DETERMINING WIND POWER PENETRATION LIMIT IN POWER SYSTEM UNDER STATIC SECURITY CONSTRAINTS[J];中国电机工程学报;2001-06
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved