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Short Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Magnitude and Timing of Extreme Load

CHEN Xinyu1,KANG Chongqing1,CHEN Minjie2(1.State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments(Dept.of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University),Haidian District,Beijing 100084,China;2.Dept.of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,02139,Cambridge,MA,USA)  
As the foundation of system daily scheduling and operations,current deterministic forecasting algorithm of the magnitude and timing of extreme load is not satisfactory.Probabilistic forecasting is an effective way to reduce the risk of inaccurate forecasting of extreme load.This paper took peak load as an example,analyzed the multi sub-peaks characteristic of load curve,studied the statistical features of the peak load magnitude and timing,established the regression model between peak load occurrence time and sunset time;based on sorted statistics of peak load daily increments by weeks and seasons,the paper forecasted the probabilistic density functions(PDF) of sub-peak load magnitudes,calculated the PDF of the peak load magnitude via sequence operation theories,forecasted the timing PDF employing total probability formula.Method proposed in this paper has been applied to a city in North China and the results prove the effectiveness of this method.
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