Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Proceedings of the CSEE》 2011-25
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

Short-term Forecasting of Wind Power and Non-parametric Confidence Interval Estimation

ZHOU Songlin,MAO Meiqin,SU Jianhui(Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education,Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China)  
To meet the requirements of network planning,the forecasting system of wind power should provide exact forecasted value and make a reasonable assessment of risk which implied in forecasted values.Artificial neural network was applied to forecasting wind speed and wind direction,and wind power forecasting results were achieved according to the measured power curve.The uncertainty factors of the wind power forecasting were analyzed,and a non-parametric confidence interval estimation method was proposed based on analyzing the statistical characteristics of forecast errors.By means of the method,a probability density function model for forecasting errors in each power section was established,and the probabilistic forecasting results of wind power were obtained on the base of deterministic forecasting.The practicality and effectiveness of the proposed approach are verified by simulation results.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219708);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51077033)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM715
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 MAO Meiqin;CAO Yu;ZHOU Songlin;Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education, Hefei University of Technology;;Improved Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Method Based on Accumulative Error Correction[J];电力系统自动化;2013-23
2 DING Huajie;SONG Yonghua;HU Zechun;WU Jincheng;FAN Xiaoxu;Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University;R&D Center of China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited;;Probability Density Function of Day-ahead Wind Power Forecast Errors Based on Power Curves of Wind Farms[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
3 YANG Qing -Bin;YUAN Tie -jiang;TUERXUN Yibulayin;CHEN Jie;ALIMUJINAG Kadeer;LIU Pei-han;LIU Jia-ming;GE Lai-fu;WANG Zai-chuang;College of Electric Engineering,Xinjiang University;;The storage system capacity optimization based on output plan of wind power[J];可再生能源;2013-11
4 MENG Yanfeng1,2, HU Shuju1,2, DENG Ya1,2, XU Honghua 1,2 (1. Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Wind Energy Utilization, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China);Analysis and Evaluation Method of Wind Power Predicted-Error[J];电力建设;2013-07
5 ZHOU Songlin,MAO Meiqin,SU Jianhui(Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China);Power Flow Forecasting of Micro-grid Considering Randomness of Wind Power[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-22
6 Mi Zengqiang;Wang Fei;Yang Guang;Wang Zhe;Su Shi;Yu Bo;Zhang Liang;Yang Qixun;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University);Jinan Power Supply Bureau;Yunnan Electric Power Test and Research Institute (Group) Co.,Ltd.Electric Power Research Institute;State Key Laboratory of PV Materials and Technology(Yingli Group Co.Ltd);;ANN BASED IRRADIANCE FORECAST OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PLANT AND TWO DIMENSIONS VARIABLE SCALE MODIFICATION METHOD FOR THE FORECAST VALUE[J];太阳能学报;2013-02
7 ZHOU Yan,TAN Ying-lian,LIU Biao,WANG Kai(Xinjiang Wind Power Engineering Design & Consultation Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830063,China);Overview on prediction research of wind power[J];电气传动自动化;2013-01
8 WU Xiaoshan,ZHANG Buhan,YUAN Xiaoming,LI Gaowang,LUO Gang,ZHOU Yang(State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology(Huazhong University of Science and Technology),Wuhan 430074,Hubei Province,China);Solutions to Unit Commitment Problems in Power Systems With Wind Farms Using Advanced Quantum-inspired Binary PSO[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-04
9 QING Xiangyun,YANG Fuwen,WANG Xingyu(Department of Automation,East China University of Science and Technology,Xuhui District,Shanghai 200237,China);Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting For Multiple Wind Farms Using Bayesian Krigedkalman Mode[J];中国电机工程学报;2012-35
10 MA Xiaoqian,XIE Zeqiong School of Electric Power,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;Prediction Models for the Heating Values of Municipal Refuse Based on BP Neural Network[J];科技导报;2012-23
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 ZHOU Jian-zhong, ZHANG Ya-chao, LI Qing-qing, GUO Jun (College of Hydroelectric and Digitalization Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, Hubei Province, China);Probabilistic Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Dynamic Self-Adaptive Radial Basis Function Network[J];电网技术;2010-03
2 WANG Li-jie1, DONG Lei1, LIAO Xiao-zhong1, GAO Yang2 (1. School of Automation, Beijing Institute of Technology, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China; 2. Department of Electrical Engineering, Shenyang Institute of Engineering, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning Province, China);Short-term Power Prediction of a Wind Farm Based on Wavelet Analysis[J];中国电机工程学报;2009-28
3 QI Shuang-bin1,WANG Wei-qing2,ZHANG Xin-yan1(1.College of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang Univ.,Urumqi 830008,China;2.Dept.of Science Research,Xinjiang Univ.,Urumqi 830008,China);Wind speed and wind power prediction based on SVM[J];华东电力;2009-09
4 LIU Chun,FAN Gao-feng,WANG Wei-sheng,DAI Hui-zhu(China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China);A Combination Forecasting Model for Wind Farm Output Power[J];电网技术;2009-13
5 Fang Rengcun1,2 Zhou Jianzhong1 Zhang Yongchuan1 Liu Li1(1 College of Hydroelectricity and Digitalization Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;2 Hubei Electric Power Test and Research Institute,Wuhan 430077,China);Short-term probabilistic load forecasting using chaotic time series[J];华中科技大学学报(自然科学版);2009-05
6 FAN Gao-feng, WANG Wei-sheng, LIU Chun, DAI Hui-zhu (China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100192, China);Wind Power Prediction Based on Artificial Neural Network[J];中国电机工程学报;2008-34
7 SUN Chun-shun,WANG Yao-nan,LI Xin-ran(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan Province,China);A Vector Autoregression Model of Hourly Wind Speed and Its Applications in Hourly Wind Speed Forecasting[J];中国电机工程学报;2008-14
8 YANG Wenjia , KANG Chongqing , XIA Qing , LIU Runsheng, TANG Taonan, WANG Peng, ZHANG Li (State Key Lab of Power Systems, Dept of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China) (Beijing Electric Power Corporation, Beijing 100031, China);Short Term Probabilistic Load Forecasting Based on Statistics of Probability Distribution of Forecasting Errors[J];电力系统自动化;2006-19
9 YANG Xiu-yuan 1, XIAO Yang2, CHEN Shu-yong 3 (1. Beijing Machinery Industry College, Haidian District, Beijing 100085, China; 2. Northeast China Institute of Electric Power Engineering, Jilin 132012, Jilin Province, China; 3. China Electric Power Research Institute, Haidian District, Beijing 100085, China);WIND SPEED AND GENERATED POWER FORECASTING IN WIND FARM[J];中国电机工程学报;2005-11
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ;The Network Model for the First-step Test on the Wind Electricity Prediction Based on Single Binary SVM[J];日用电器;2013-12
2 WANG Hongsen;PENG Xiangang;Faculty of Automation,Guangdong University of Technology;;Short-time Wind Speed Combined Prediction Method Based on Evolutional and Harmony Search Optimization[J];广东电力;2013-12
3 GONG Weixiang;CHEN Guochu;School of Electric Engineering,Shanghai Dianji University;;Combined Model of Wind Speed Prediction Using Ealman Neural Network Based on Kalman Filtering and Phase Space Reconstruction[J];上海电机学院学报;2013-06
4 WANG Li-jie;LI Hui;School of Automation,Beijing Information Science and Technology University;;Short-term wind power forecast based on empirical mode decomposition[J];北京信息科技大学学报(自然科学版);2013-06
5 Xu Jingjing;Hu Fei;Xiao Ziniu;Li Jun;International Center for Climate and Environment Science,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;China Meteorological Administration Training Center;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences;State Key Laboratory of Offshore Wind Power Generation Technology and Detection;;Analog Bias Correction of Numerical Model on Wind Power Prediction[J];应用气象学报;2013-06
6 SUN Yihan;HE Xiaofeng;ZHOU Rongwei;Public Meteorological Service Center of CMA;;Evaluation of Forecasting Results of Wind Speed Based on Different Background Fields in the Surface Layer[J];资源科学;2013-12
7 MAO Meiqin;CAO Yu;ZHOU Songlin;Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education, Hefei University of Technology;;Improved Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Method Based on Accumulative Error Correction[J];电力系统自动化;2013-23
8 YUAN Xiaoling;SHI Junhua;XU Jieyan;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University;State Grid Energy Conservation Service Corporation;;Short-term Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Generation Considering Weather Type Index[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
9 DING Huajie;SONG Yonghua;HU Zechun;WU Jincheng;FAN Xiaoxu;Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University;R&D Center of China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited;;Probability Density Function of Day-ahead Wind Power Forecast Errors Based on Power Curves of Wind Farms[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
10 LIU Kewen;PU Tianjiao;ZHOU Haiming;LIU Guangyi;China Electric Power Research Institute;;A Short Term Wind Power Forecasting Model Based on Combination Algorithms[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-34
【Co-references】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 WU Xiong,WANG Xiuli,LI Jun,GUO Jingli,ZHANG Kai,CHEN Jie(School of Electrical Engineering,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,Shaanxi Province,China);A Joint Operation Model and Solution for Hybrid Wind Energy Storage Systems[J];中国电机工程学报;2013-13
2 FENG Jiangxia,LIANG Jun,ZHANG Feng,WANG Chengfu,SUN Bohao(School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,China);An Optimization Calculation Method of Wind Farm Energy Storage Capacity[J];电力系统自动化;2013-01
3 WANG Chengshan,YU Bo,XIAO Jun,GUO Li(Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education(Tianjin University),Nankai District,Tianjin 300072,China);Sizing of Energy Storage Systems for Output Smoothing of Renewable Energy Systems[J];中国电机工程学报;2012-16
4 ZHANG Hao1,MA Ai-jun1,LI Wen-bin2,ZHANG Cheng-gang3(1.Zhejiang Huzhou Electric Power Bureau,Huzhou 313000,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipments & System Security and New Technology,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400030,China;3.Shaanxi Electric Power Company Dispatching Center,Xi'an 710004,China);Research of the relationship between wind farm output and energy storage[J];中国电力;2012-06
5 WU Dongliang1,2,WANG Yang1,GUO Chuangxin1,LIU Yi3,GAO Zhenxing4(1.College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310027,China; 2.Wuhu Power Supply Bureau,Wuhu 241027,China; 3.East China Grid Co.Ltd.,Shanghai 200002,China;4.Yantai Power Supply Bureau,Yantai 264001,China);An Economic Dispatching Model Considering Wind Power Forecast Errors in Electricity Market Environment[J];电力系统自动化;2012-06
6 YANG Xiyun1,SUN Baojun1,ZHANG Xinfang2,LI Lixia1(1.School of Control and Computer Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;2.State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design & Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100094,China);Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Support Vector Machine With Similar Data[J];中国电机工程学报;2012-04
7 HU Zechun1,DING Huajie1,KONG Tao2 (1.Department of Electrical Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;2.North China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100045,China);A Joint Daily Operational Optimization Model for Wind Power and Pumped-storage Plant[J];电力系统自动化;2012-02
8 LIN Weixing1,WEN Jinyu1,AI Xiaomeng1,CHENG Shijie1,LEE Weijen2(1.State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology(Huazhong University of Science and Technology),Wuhan 430074,Hubei Province,China;2.Energy Systems Research Center,University of Texas,Arlington TX 76019,USA);Probability Density Function of Wind Power Variations[J];中国电机工程学报;2012-01
9 YE Lin,LIU Peng(College of Information and Electrical Engineering,China Agricultural University,Haidian District,Beijing 100083,China);Combined Model Based on EMD-SVM for Short-term Wind Power Prediction[J];中国电机工程学报;2011-31
10 SHENG Dakai,QIU Weidong,QI Lizhong(State Power Economic Research Institute,Beijing 100052,China);Effective Ways to Implement Five Changes for Developing Wind Power[J];电力建设;2011-11
【Secondary References】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 2 Hits
1 Wang Shiqian;Tian Chunzheng;Huang Jinghui;He'nan Electric Power Corporation Economic Research Institute;;Correction Method for Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting Results Based on Mathematical Statistics[J];电气技术;2013-11
2 HE Jian-bo;HU Zhi-jian;WANG He;School of Electrical Engineering,Wuhan University;;Power System Economic Dispatch Based on Fast Intelligent Tuned Harmony Search Optimization[J];华东电力;2013-10
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 XIAN Guang-ming1,ZENG Bi-qing1,XIAN Guang-lin2 1.Department of Computer Engineering,Nanha Campus,South China Normal University,Foshan,Guangdong 528225,China 2.Department of Computer Engineering,Guangdong Industry Technical College,Guangzhou 510300,China;Application research of SVM in classification and regression[J];计算机工程与应用;2008-27
2 GENG Yan,HAN Xue-shan,HAN Li (School of Electrical Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250061,Shandong Province,China);Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machines[J];电网技术;2008-18
3 PAN Di-fu1, LIU Hui1, LI Yan-fei2 (1. School of Traffic & Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, Hunan Province, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Traffic Safety on the Track (Central South University), Ministry of Education, Changsha 410075, Hunan Province, China);Optimization Algorithm of Short-term Multi-step Wind Speed Forecast[J];中国电机工程学报;2008-26
4 ZHU Shu-xian,ZHANG Ren-jie(Collage of Op tical and Electronic Engineering,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,P.R.China);Research for Selection of Kernel Functions Used in Support Vector Machine[J];科学技术与工程;2008-16
5 DU Ying1,LU Ji-ping1,LI Qing2,DENG Ying-ling3 (1.State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology (Chongqing University),Shapingba District,Chongqing 400044,China;2.Gansu Clean Source of Wind Power Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730050,Gansu Province,China;3.China CIVIL Zhanjiang Air Traffic Management Station, Zhanjiang 524017,Guangdong Province,China);Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting of Wind Farm Based on Least Square-Support Vector Machine[J];电网技术;2008-15
6 LUO Wei,YAN Zheng (School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University, Minhang District,Shanghai 200240,China);A Hybrid Approach of Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Generalized Learning Vector Quantity and Support Machine Vector[J];电网技术;2008-13
7 HAN Shuang,YANG Yong-ping,LIU Yong-qian(School of Energy and Power Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China);Application study of three methods in wind speed prediction[J];华北电力大学学报(自然科学版);2008-03
8 SUN Chun-shun,WANG Yao-nan,LI Xin-ran(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan Province,China);A Vector Autoregression Model of Hourly Wind Speed and Its Applications in Hourly Wind Speed Forecasting[J];中国电机工程学报;2008-14
9 CAI Kai1,TAN Lun-nong1,LI Chun-lin2,TAO Xue-feng1 (1.School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,Jiangsu Province,China; 2.Electric Control Sub-Co.NARI Group Corporation,Nanjing 210003,Jiangsu Province,China);Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Combing Time Series and Neural Network Method[J];电网技术;2008-08
10 WANG Yao-nan,SUN Chun-shun,LI Xin-ran(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan Province,China);Short-term Wind Speed Simulation Corrected With Field Measured Wind Speed[J];中国电机工程学报;2008-11
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved