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《Proceedings of the CSEE》 2013-22
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Power Flow Forecasting of Micro-grid Considering Randomness of Wind Power

ZHOU Songlin,MAO Meiqin,SU Jianhui(Research Center for Photovoltaic System Engineering Ministry of Education,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,Anhui Province,China)  
The technology of micro-grid is an effective approach to promote the development and utilization of renewable energy.Wind generation is an important unit of a micro-grid,and its randomness has a great influence on operation characteristic of a micro-grid.The direct power flow forecasting of a micro-grid can reduce the adverse impact caused by wind power randomness.Based on the deterministic power flow forecasting by adaptive support vector machine model,Markov process and Monte Carlo simulation method are combined together to carry out probabilistic forecasting of power flow under the grid-connection and off-grid operation modes.The simulation results show that the proposed approach can accurately forecast the power flow of the micro-grid and assess the risks contained in forecasting results from the perspective of probability.The conclusions provide a theoretical basis for further analyzing and optimizing system operation.
【Fund】: 基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219708);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51077033 50837001)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM715
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