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《Proceedings of the CSEE》 2013-34
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Short-term Power Forecasting for Photovoltaic Generation Considering Weather Type Index

YUAN Xiaoling;SHI Junhua;XU Jieyan;College of Energy and Electrical Engineering,Hohai University;State Grid Energy Conservation Service Corporation;  
According to the analysis of main factors which affect power output of photovoltaic system,a short-term power forecasting model based on BP neutral network and considering weather type index was established. The weather type index was set up according to ratio of average power output of different types of weather. The model of BP neutral network was trained using historical power output data and the weather type index. The trained model was used to forecast power output of the photovoltaic generation. The forecasting results were compared with results coming from sub-forecasting models which were classified according to different types of weather and the actual operation results. Compared results show that the forecasting model established in this paper can be used to forecast power output on different weather types with accurate forecast capability and robust applicability.
【CateGory Index】: TM615
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