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《Proceedings of the CSEE》 2016-22
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Evaluation on the Short-term Power Supply Capacity of Active Distribution System Based on Multiple Scenarios Considering Uncertainties

GAO Yajing;ZHU Jing;CHENG Huaxin;LIANG Haifeng;LI Peng;State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources (North China Electric Power University);  
The power supply capacity(PSC) of active distribution system(ADS) is affected by varieties of uncertain factors, including the topological structures of distribution networks, component faults, load levels, as well as the outputs of distributed energy resources(DER). It is of great significance of the optimal dispatching and safe operation of ADS to evaluate PSC accurately. This paper firstly analyzed the impact of these uncertainties to PSC of ADS, and constructed a probability model considering uncertainties; then the scenarios of the PSC assessment were formed based on the technology of scenario generation and simplification. Furthermore, a series of probability evaluation indexes of PSC were defined and calculated according to the assessment under various scenarios, so as to guide the optimized operation of ADS, explore the PSC of distribution network, and improve the comprehensive benefits. At last, a practical case study was employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the method and model proposed on the improved IEEE 14-node distribution network.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(51607068);; 北京市自然科学基金项目(3164051);; 国家863高技术基金项目(2015AA050104)~~
【CateGory Index】: TM732
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