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《The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control》 2003-04
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Research on prediction criterion for temporary prediction of landslide

LI Xiu\|zhen, XU Qiang, HUANG Run\|qiu, TANG Ming\|gao(National Speciality Laboratory of Geological Hazard Control and Geological Environment Protection,Chengdu University of Technoogy,Chengdu\ 610059,China)  
As a kind of natural geology hazard,landslides will often cause loss of lifes and wealth.In order to avoid or reduce hazards,it is important and valuable to predict landslide in advance.Prediction models and criterions are key factors in temporary prediction of landslides,and are also important factors for predicting landslides successfully.At present ,many scholars in home and abroad have presented many kinds of theoretical models and methods about predicting landslides,but they have some limits generally in application.In order to obtain an accurate prediction,We should establish some applicable criterions of landslide prediction.In this paper,by consulting large quantity of data,analysing and generalizing more than ten kinds of landslide prediction criterions,describing three sorts of common prediction criterions are presented in details ie.assurance factor and reliability probility criterions,deformation rate criterion and macro information prediction criterion,the applicability and insufficiency of landslide prediction criterions are also anylized emphatically.In order to improve the level of landslide prediction,on the basis of thoroughly researching landslide types,characters,deformation features and formation mechanism,depending on monitoring data,following the scientific,synthetic and workable principle,a comprehensive information prediction method which combines theoretical model prediction and prediction criterion and macrography deformationfailure evidence or premonition of landslide is presented here.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金(40172096);; 国土资源部2000专项计划资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P642.22
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