Full-Text Search:
Home|Journal Papers|About CNKI|User Service|FAQ|Contact Us|中文
《Electric Power》 2015-03
Add to Favorite Get Latest Update

The Anhui Annual Maximum Load Forecasting Method Research Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

GE Fei;RONG Xiuting;SHI Xuemei;YANG Xin;LI Zhou;Anhui Inst. of Electric Power Corporation Economic & Technology;  
This paper analyzes the features of the centrally dispatched maximum power load(referred to as "maximum load") from the characteristics of electricity consumption structure and decomposes the maximum power load into three separate loads: base load,residents' air conditioning load and non-residents' air-conditioning load. Upon the decomposition, econometric methods are applied to analyze the economic and meteorological factors of each load. The paper finally establishes the maximum load forecasting model including economic and meteorological factors. The model explains the fundamental factors influencing the maximum load; the forecasting error is controlled within 3%, which meets the requirement of load forecasting practice and has certain applied values.
【CateGory Index】: TM715
Download(CAJ format) Download(PDF format)
CAJViewer7.0 supports all the CNKI file formats; AdobeReader only supports the PDF format.
【Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 9 Hits
1 ZHANG Cheng, TENG Huan (School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China);Middle and Long Term Load Forecasting based on RE and PLSR Methods[J];Electric Power Construction;2011-12
2 JIANG Jiandong1,CHENG Zhihao1,ZHU Mingjia2(1.School of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China; 2.Jiyuan Power Supply Company,Jiyuan 454650,China);Combined short-term load forecast with accumulated temperature effect[J];Electric Power Automation Equipment;2011-10
3 ZHANG Cheng, TENG Huan (School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China);Mid-long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on PLSR and BP Neural Network[J];Electric Power Construction;2012-07
4 LIU Jidong,HAN Xueshan,CHU Chengbo,ZHANG Li(Key Laboratory of Power System Intelligent Dispatch and Control of Ministry of Education,Shandong University,Ji’nan 250061,China);Cooling load of summer grid considering non-meteorological factors[J];Electric Power Automation Equipment;2013-02
5 TAO Yong,SHEN Ying(Dept.of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong Univ.,Shanghai 200240,China);Influence of summer weather condition on regional air conditioning loads[J];East China Electric Power;2006-10
6 GUAN Yi-bin1,CHEN Zhe2,LI Qiang2,ZHOU Jian-hua2,CHEN Wen-hao1(1.Jiangsu Electric Power Dispatching and Communication Center,Nanjing 210024,China; 2.Jiangsu Electric Power Company Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 211103,China);Research on Influences Which Meteorological Factors Have on Jiangsu Summer Peak Load[J];Jiangsu Electrical Engineering;2012-06
7 WANG Jing1,FENG Xian-shi2,GUO Hong-zhen1(1.School of Business Administration,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China; 2.State Grid Information & Telecommunication Company Ltd.,Beijing 100761,China);Urban load saturation forecast based on ant cellular automata theory[J];Electric Power;2011-07
8 CHEN Chao1,HUANG Guo-yong1,SHAO Zong-kai1,2,WANG Xiao-dong1,2,FAN Yu-gang1,2(1.School of Information Engineering & Automation,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China;2.Yunnan Provincial Mineral Pipeline Technology Research Center,Kunming 650500,China);Short-Term Load Forecasting for Similar Days Based on PSO-SVM and Daily Feature Vector[J];Electric Power;2013-07
9 LIU Xiao-juan;FANG Jian-an;College of Information Science & Technology,Donghua University;School of Mathematics and Physics,Shanghai University of Electric Power;;Maximum Load Forecasting Based on a Bi-Factor Revised Fuzzy Time Series Model[J];Electric Power;2013-10
【Co-citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 LIU Cheng-hong et al (College of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510642);Empirical Research on the Impact of Agricultural Structure Adjustment on Agricultural Economic Growth[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2009-25
2 LIU Shi-chang et al(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan,Hubei 430070);Empirical Analysis on the Income Difference of Farmers in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-01
3 XING Xiang-jun et al (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101);The Progress and Determinants of Irrigation Management Reform in the Irrigation Districts of the Yellow River Basin[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-25
4 GAO Zhen-zhen et al(School of Economics and Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Ya′an,Sichuan 625014);Study on the Intention and Influencing Factors of Suburban Farmers' Participation in New Rural Social Endowment Insurance——A Case Study of Jintang County of Chengdu City[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2010-31
5 ZU Pei-fu et al(Mudanjiang Normal College,Mudanjiang,Heilongjiang 157011);Mathematical Model of River Runoff Based on the Linear Regression Analysis[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2011-21
6 JIANG Min-jin (School of Tourism and Urban Management,Jiangxi University of Finance & Economics,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330032);Co-integration Analysis on Tourism and the Income of Mountain Farmers[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2011-36
7 SU Yue-xia(School of Economics and Management,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai'an,Jiangsu 223300);Study on Consumption Structure of Jiangsu Urban Residents Based on ELES Model[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-04
8 JIA Min-jiang(Department of Business,Sichuan Higher Institute of Cuisine,Chengdu,Sichuan 610100);Study on the Changes of Fixed Assets Investment Increment and Main Business Profit Margin Fluctuation of Food Manufacturing Industry in China[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-06
9 WANG Jian-hui(Beijing Youth Politics College,Beijing 100102);Empirical Study of China′s Rural Consumption Function from the Perspective of Balancing Urban and Rural Development[J];Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences;2012-11
10 ZHANG Xiao-zhen CHEN Tao(Statistical Institute,Capital University of Economist and Business,Beijing 100070);Example Analysis on Relationship between Changes of Agricultural Structure and Farmers' Income in Tianjin City[J];Modern Agricultural Sciences and Technology;2010-01
China Proceedings of conference Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ;重庆城市化与商品流通关系的实证研究[A];[C];2007
2 Zhou Chen (Chong Qing Technology and Business University, Chong Qing, 400067, China);Impact Analysis of Regional Differences of FDI in OurFour Municipalities’ Economic Growth[A];[C];2009
3 YANG Xu LIU Zi-fa ZHANG Jian-hua LI Cong (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,102206);URBAN POWER LOAD FORECASTING CONSIDERING CLIMATE FACTOR[A];[C];2007
4 Li Mei zhang Xiao-ming(Beijing polytechnic university economic and business college);The research of the moderate scale of china foreign exchange reserves[A];[C];2010
5 Tan Zhihao Fang Wei (China University of Petroleum (Beijing) business administration, Beijing 102200 );China’s energy consumption and economic growth:An empirical analyst based on VAR model[A];[C];2008
6 Ren Jiafu, Zhang Fang, Zhou Zongfang (School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science & Technology of China, Chengdu, China, 610054);Application Research on Combined Forecasting Model Based on ARIMA and BP Neural Network[A];[C];2008
7 Zhang Zhenzhen1, Li Shantong2 (1.Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 100192;2. Development Research Center of the State Council, P.R. China, Beijing 100010);Empirical analysis of China’s economic growth and environmental quality[A];[C];2009
8 Ruibin Zhang , Lianjie Wang School of Finance ,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guizhou 550004 ,China;The Basis Analysis of Chinese Metal futures Based on the ARMA Model[A];[C];2012
9 QIN Song~(1,2),XU Xiao-lin~2,WANG Zhen-lei~3 (1.College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China; 2.Taizhou University,Taizhou 318000,China;3.Bank of Taizhou,Taizhou 318000,China);The Study of Resume Information Selection Basing on the Discrete Choice Model[A];[C];2012
10 YANG Hao,MA He (Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade,Shanghai 201620,China);China' s Influence on Prices of International Staple Agricultural Products:An Empirical Analysis Based on Soybean Futures Markets[A];[C];2012
【Secondary Citations】
Chinese Journal Full-text Database 10 Hits
1 ZHANG Jing-wei1,ZHENG Lin1,YIN Jian-min2,WEI Lei-na1(1.Geography and Environment College,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330022,China;2.Climate Centre of Jiangxi Province,Nanchnag Jiangxi 330046,China);The Analysis of Main Meteorological Factors on the Impact of the Power Load of the Nanchang City in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Region——Based on Nanchang[J];Journal of Jiangxi Normal University(Natural Sciences Edition);2009-06
2 GAO Xia1,2,ZENG Xin3,LU Jian-li2(1.Meteorology College,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;2.Baoding Meteorological Bureau,Baoding 071000,China;3.North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China);The relation of load characteristics and meteorologic condition[J];Journal of Agricultural University of Hebei;2007-04
3 ZHANG Cheng, TENG Huan (School of Electrical Engineering and Information, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China);Middle and Long Term Load Forecasting based on RE and PLSR Methods[J];Electric Power Construction;2011-12
4 WEN Quan,LI Jing-ru,ZHAO Jing (State Grid Corporation Power and Economy Research Center,Beijing 100761,China);Air-conditioning load calculation methods and its application[J];Power Demand Side Management;2005-04
5 Kang Chongqing⑿ Cheng Xu⑿ Xia Qing⑿ Shen Yu⒉ Tsinghua University⒙100084⒙ Beijing⒙ China⒕;A NEW UNIFIED APPROACH TO SHORT-TERM LOAD FORECASTING CONSIDERING CORRELATED FACTORS[J];AUTOMATION OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS;1999-18
6 Wang Zhihua1 ,L i Yang1 ,Zhao Cuiyu1 ,L u Yi1 ,L i Junhong2 ,Zhang Changhu2 1.Southeast University,Nanjing2 10 0 96 ,China 2 .Nanjing Power Supply Bureau,Nanjing2 10 0 0 8,China;STUDY ON SUMMER TEMPERATURE-SENSITIVE LOAD IN NANJING CITY[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2002-03
7 Kang Chongqing, Xia Qing, Zhang Boming Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;REVIEW OF POWER SYSTEM LOAD FORECASTING AND ITS DEVELOPMENT[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2004-17
8 XIAO Jun1,ZHANG Jing1,ZHU Tao1,SHI Changkai1,ZHANG Haiping2(1.Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;2.Huizhou Electric Power Corporation,Huizhou 516000,China);Analysis of Urban Power Load Based on Association Rules[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2007-17
9 LI Canbing1,LI Xiaohui1,ZHAO Rui2,LI Jinlong3,LIU Xiaoguang1(1.Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;2.Beijing Electric Power Corporation,Beijing 100031,China;3.North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China);A Novel Algorithm of Selecting Similar Days for Short-term Power Load Forecasting[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2008-09
10 LI Canbing1,YANG Peng1,LIU Wei2,LI Dayong3,WANG Yu1(1.Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;2.Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China;3.Anyang Electrical Power Company,Anyang 455000,China);An Analysis of Accumulative Effect of Temperature in Short-term Load Forecasting[J];Automation of Electric Power Systems;2009-09
©2006 Tsinghua Tongfang Knowledge Network Technology Co., Ltd.(Beijing)(TTKN) All rights reserved