The Anhui Annual Maximum Load Forecasting Method Research Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors
GE Fei;RONG Xiuting;SHI Xuemei;YANG Xin;LI Zhou;Anhui Inst. of Electric Power Corporation Economic & Technology;
This paper analyzes the features of the centrally dispatched maximum power load(referred to as "maximum load") from the characteristics of electricity consumption structure and decomposes the maximum power load into three separate loads: base load,residents' air conditioning load and non-residents' air-conditioning load. Upon the decomposition, econometric methods are applied to analyze the economic and meteorological factors of each load. The paper finally establishes the maximum load forecasting model including economic and meteorological factors. The model explains the fundamental factors influencing the maximum load; the forecasting error is controlled within 3%, which meets the requirement of load forecasting practice and has certain applied values.