Advances of the Project of the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climatic Disasters in China
Huang Ronghui Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029
Due to the severity of drought and flood disasters in China, research of the project started from severe climatic disasters such as droughts and floods occurred in China from the 1980s of the 20th century, and made in\|depth analyses of the formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters from the variabilities of various spheres of climate system and their interactions, especially from the variabilities of subsystems of sea\|land\|air of climate system and their interactions, and put forward new theories related to the formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters in China. Moreover, new breakthrough in the studies on mechanism and numerical model of ENSO cycle and the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau, which have an important effect on the occurrence of severe climatic disasters in China, has been achieved, respectively, and this made the increase of the predicting level of ENSO events in China. Based on the above\|mentioned theoretic studies, the project proposed a numerical prediction system for extraseasonal and annual anomalies of climate and designed a new\|generation numerical climate model, and using this prediction system, the severe climatic disasters of droughts and floods occurred in China from 1998 to 2002 were predicted successfully. Besides, the project successfully carried out the “Observational Experiment on the Air\|Land Interaction in Arid Regions of Northwest China”, which has obtained many valuable scientific observational data associated with air\|land interaction in the typical arid\|regions of China and many scientific results with original innovation have been achieved. These may provide reliable data of climate and environment for the strategy of opening up Northwest China. These research achievements not only built up a solid basis of theory and numerical model for the study on regularity of the occurrence, cause and prediction of severe climatic disasters, but also are of great economic and social benefit for the increase of the prediction level of climatic disasters of droughts and floods and reduction of the economic loss due to climatic disasters in China. The project also trained a batch of outstanding young leading scientists engaging in the study on analysis, simulation and prediction of climate, forming a rank of research on the analysis, prediction of climatic disasters. Moreover, two research centers for monsoon and ENSO cycle, prediction of climatic disasters have been perfected and an experimental base of the observation of the air\|land interaction in the typical arid\|regions has been established.