Simulation of Rice Yield under Climatic Changes in Future in China
XIONG Wei, TAO Fu-lu, XU Yin-long, LIN Er-da (Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Agrometeorology Institute, Beijing 100081)
The GCMs HadCM 2 and ECHAM 4 are linked with the crop model CERES-RICE3.5 by Stochastic Weather Generator to simulate rice yield in China under four climatic conditions. The results show: (1) There is a reduction trend of rice yield in main rice production areas of China, it is more serious in Northeast of China and of early rice. (2) If CO 2 abatement were adopted, rice yield reduction wouldn't have major change. (3) In the region of high altitude where is suitable for rice growth in the future, especially in the Southwestern China, rice will show a trend of increasing in yield.