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《China Population Resources and Environment》 2010-02
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Analysis Model and Empirical Study of Impacts from Population and Consumption on Carbon Emissions

ZHU Qin1,2 PENG Xi-zhe1 LU Zhi-ming1 YU Juan1 (1.The State Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy Studies,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;2.College of Computer Science and Technology,Nantong University,Nantong Jiangsu 226019,China)  
With the development of social economy,the influences from China's population and consumption on carbon emission are getting increasingly deeper.An extended STIRPAT model is established in this article.Impacts from population,consumption and technology on carbon emissions are analyzed econometrically with the ridge regression method.Empirical results of China's carbon emission from 1980 to 2007 demonstrate that the extended STIRPAT model has high explanatory power for China's realities.The impacts of the urbanization rate,the household consumption level and the population scale have more explanatory power to the quantity change regularity of China's carbon emission,which is more influenced by the urbanization rate and the household consumption level than the population size at the present stage.Both the changes of household consumption level and consumption pattern have possibilities of being new growth points for China's carbon emission.The impacts of technology has limited explanatory power to China's carbon emission,thus means China has tremendous potential for future carbon emission reduction through technology progress.
【Fund】: 国家科技支撑计划重大项目专题(编号:2007BAC03A11-05);; 中国博士后科学基金项目(编号:20080440573);; 江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师培养项目(2008)
【CateGory Index】: N945.12
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