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《Earthquake Research in China》 2006-02
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Forecasting of Annual Maximum Earthquakes in the South China Seismic Area Based on Wavelet Transform and Least Squares Support Vector Machine

Li Zhixiong Shen Fanluan Yuan Xiwen Fu GanEarthquake Administration of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China  
The models based on wavelet transform(WT) and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) was applied to forecast annual the maximum earthquake magnitude in the South China seismic area. Firstly, using wavelet transform the series of annual the maximum earthquake magnitude in the South China seismic area was decomposed into several sub-sequences on different scales(frequency band). Secondly, the least squares support vector machine was applied to forecast the decomposed sub-sequences, respectively. Finally, the reconstruction of forecasted sub-sequences was used as the final predicted result. The comparison with LS-SVM and period method was made. The forecasted results show that WT and LS-SVM method possesses higher prediction precision and excellent forecasting effect, and prove that the method to combine WT with LS-SVM is feasible to forecast time series of strong earthquakes in the South China seismic area. The forecasted results also suggest that there are the strong and different nonlinear relations between variations of velocity of the Earth's rotation with high frequency portion (trend) and low frequency portion(short variations) of time sequence of the annual maximum earthquake in the South China seismic area.
【Fund】: 地震科学联合基金(105086)资助项目
【CateGory Index】: P315.75
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