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Activity of the 1997 Jiashi Strong Swarm in Xinjiang and Three Successful Impending Predictions for It

Zhu Lingren Su Naiqing Yang Maling (Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830011,China)  
A series of strong swarm including 7 earthquakes with M S≥6 0 occurred in Jiashi,Xinjiang from Jan. to Apr.,1997,this is exceptional for the intraplate seismicity.They occurred in the Tarim Basin where is relatively stable,no surface breakage has been found and deep tectonic is not very chear in the earthquake region.Three successful impending (in one week) predictions have been worked out to the Jiashi strong aftershock and the follow up strong earthquake by the Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang.The injuries and deaths decreased greatly for powerful measures have been taken by the local government,the beneficial results in society and economics are remarkable.Through the summary to the scientific basis of the impending prediction,it is shown that some important problem in the occurrence of Jiashi strong swarm should be studied deeply.The practice of the prediction in Jiashi gave people the revelation again:the complexity of earthquake preparation should be faced,and more attention should be paid to the methodology,thinking mode and action in the earthquake prediction.
【CateGory Index】: P315.7
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