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《China Rural Water and Hydropower》 2016-11
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Prediction of land use change in the West Mountain Areas of Tian Shan

YU Yan-min;MU Zhen-xia;PENG Liang;HE Ying;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University;  
In order to better study the land use dynamic changes,this article is based on 1990,2000 and 2010 the three period of the land use data,using Markov model in 1990-2000 and 1990-2010 pattern of land use change in Yili Kashi river basin in the western mountainous areas of the Tianshan mountains. Based on the data of land use in 2000 and 1990-2000 transformation rules,using the CA-Markov model to predict land use situation in 2010,and comparing the 2010 actual value and predicted values of land use,obtained Kappa index is 0.9566,the model is conform to the prediction precision. Therefore,based on the data of land use in 2010 and 2000-2010 transformation rules,using the CA-Markov model to predict the study area land use situation in 2020. Draw the following conclusions: 1 through the comparison the2010 actual value and predicted values of land use found CA-Markov model in the prediction precision and applicability in the study area;2 During the 2010-2020,with the development of urbanization,the construction of water conservancy projects,and returning farmland and grassland,it makes the utilization of the grassland and water area increased,and the cultivated land,forestland,unused land and urban residents,industrial and mining,land area is decreased,the grassland is still is the main form of land use.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金项目(51469034;51209181);; 新疆农业大学水利工程博士后经费资助项目;; 新疆自治区地方公派出国留学成组配套项目(XJDF201307);; 新疆水文学及水资源重点学科基金项目(xjswszyzdxk20101202)
【CateGory Index】: F301.2
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