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《Scientia Agricultura Sinica》 2013-19
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The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China Ⅸ. The Risk of High and Low Temperature Disasters for Single and Double Rice and Its Impacts on Rice Yield in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain

LI Yong;YANG Xiao-guang;YE Qing;CHEN Fu;Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate/Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University;Forestry Institute of Jiangxi Agricultural University;College of Agronomy and Biotechnology,China Agricultural University;  
【Objective】 In this study, the change of safety planting northern limits of double rice cropping systems and the areas of sensitive regions caused by climate change during 1981 to 2010 and 1951 to 1980 were analyzed in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain. Also the risk of high and low temperature hazards during the growing season of single rice and double rice and its impacts on rice yields in the sensitive planting regions for rice safety planting(SPR) were compared and discussed.【Method】SPR were determined based on the indices of regionalization for cropping systems and agro-meteorology methods. Then according to the indices of high temperature and low temperature hazards for rice, the impacts of these two disasters on rice yields in SPR were analyzed by Oryza2000 model.【Result】Compared with 1951 to 1980, the areas of SPR in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain increased by 11.5×104km2. The high and low temperature disasters with the largest frequency for early, late, and single rice are low temperature disaster during seedling bed period, low temperature disaster during filling and ripening period, and high temperature disaster during booting and heading period, respectively. However, the disasters with the greatest impacts on crop yield for early, late,and single rice are low temperature disaster during seedling bed period, low temperature disaster during booting and heading period,and high temperature disaster during filling and ripening period. The frequency of mostly high temperature disaster during different growing periods for early, late and single rice increased, and the frequency of mostly low temperature disaster decreased.【Conclusion】Under the background of climate warming, the obvious changes for safety planting area of double rice cropping systems in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain were found. There were significant differences for the risks of high and low temperature disaster and its impacts on rice yields in the areas of SPR during the growing season of single and double rice.
【Fund】: 全球气候变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(“973”计划)(2010CB951502);; 国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020)
【CateGory Index】: S511.4
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