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《Journal of Natural Disasters》 2000-03
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Historical change and future trends of storm surge disaster in China 's coastal area

YANG Gui-shan (Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)  
China is one of the countries which are harmed by storm surge both tropical and temperate cyclones, the disaster of storm surge can occure every seasons and from south to north in China's coastal area. Based on the analysis of the features of temporal and spatial changes of storm surge disaster in the recent 50 years, this paper focuses on the frequency changes of historical records in recent 500 years and measured data in recent 50 years of storm surge disaster and the relationships between storm frequency change and climate fluctuation. Meanwhile, the effects of future increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones landing or affect- ing China and relative sea level rise with global warming on storm surge disaster of China's coastal area also discussed. The results show that, in recent 500 years, there are direct relationships between storm frequency change and climate fluctuation, i.e., high global mean temperature correspond with high storm frequency and low mean temperature correspond with low storm frequency. Storm surge disaster in China's coastal area will be exacerbated with global warming.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目!(49871076);; 中国科学院“九五”重点项目!(KZ952-J1-010)
【CateGory Index】: P444
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