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《Journal of Natural Disasters》 2005-05
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Research on astronomical factors and tendency of major earthquakes in mainland of China

HU Hui~(1),HAN Yan-ben~(2)(1.Yunnan Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Kunming 650011,China;2.Natinal Astronomical Observatoies,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)  
This paper analyses throughly the relationship between the astronomical factors and the earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in mainland of China during 20th century.The analysed results indicate that 71% of the earthquakes mentioned above occurred in the period when the inclination between moon's path and the equator turns small.It shows that seismic active period in China will come when lunar orbit moves to these positions.The solar activity and(earth's) rotation have a direct effect on the major seismic earthquakes in China.There are ordinarily the occurrence of the major eavents in the gorge year of the solar activity.There are more earthquakes when the(earth's) rotation speeds.72% of the major earthquakes in 20th century occurred during the accelaration period of the(earth's) rotation.By means of the correlation analysis it is found that major seismic activity in mainland of China has approximately a 6 years lag behind the year with peak value of the sunspot and a 12 years lag behind the year with earth's fastest rotation.According to the situation of change of the inclination between the moon's path and equator,solar activity and earth's rotation at present,it is predicted that next curtain of the seisinic activity in mainland of China will probably start at AD 2006,and it may last to 2015.During this period many earthquakes of M≥7.0 will occure in mainland of China.
【Fund】: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(1037017)
【CateGory Index】: P315;
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