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《Journal of Natural Resources》 2011-06
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Wavelet Analysis on Annual Precipitation around 300 Years in Beijing Area

LI Miao1,2,XIA Jun1,CHEN She-ming3,MENG De-juan1,2(1.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;3.College of Environment and Resources,Jilin University,Changchun 130026,China)  
After making trend analysis and abrupt change analysis,a morlet wavelet analysis was used in this study for analyzing precipitation annual variability in about 300 years in Beijing Area.The complex construction of precipitation variability was revealed and precipitation period and mutation in multiple time scale was analyzed,finally a forecast about precipitation variability was made according to the main period.It is found that there exists a slowly increasing but non-significant trend for annual precipitation in Beijing Area,and the years of 1744,1809,1894 and 1996 are abrupt change points of annual precipitation reduction,while 1777,1870 and 1948 are abrupt change points of annual rainfall increasing.Furthermore,the annual precipitation series in Beijing Area represents a non-uniform time-scale distribution in its calculation period with obvious local features.There exists a characteristic period of about 85-95 years for annual precipitation,while the periodic characteristics of 35-40 and 20-25 years are also relatively obvious.There are more or less alternatives changes in average precipitation at different time scales.Moreover,the analysis results show that there are main periods of 21 years,35 years,and 85 years of which the 85-year period is the first order main period in this area.According to the first order main period,there will be a state of less precipitation in a period of 85 years after 2009 in Beijing Area.
【Fund】: 国家重点基础研究973项目(2010CB428406)“气候变化对我国东部季风区陆地水循环与水资源安全的影响及适应对策”;; 国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730632)
【CateGory Index】: P468.024
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