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《Journal of Natural Resources》 2011-07
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Analysis of Water Resource Utilization Change Based on Factor Decomposition Model

ZHANG Qiang,WANG Ben-de,CAO Ming-liang(Department of Water Resources and Flood Control,School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)  
In order to guide water-demand management better,it is an urgent need to study the mechanism of water resource utilization change.Index decomposition methodology is an effective technique used to study the mechanism of resource utilization change.But many index decomposition methods have a problem which is the existence of a residual in the decomposition result,so a completely decomposition method: logarithmic mean divisia index method(LMDI) is introduced in this paper.And influencing factors of water resource utilization change in Dalian between 1980 and 2009 are decomposed into four kinds of effect: quota effect,industrial structure effect,economic effect and population effect based on three types of general factor decomposition model and LMDI model.The results show that: 1) LMDI has the best decomposition effect,its residual was 0.2) Economic effect and population effect are the pushing effects on water resource utilization,and economic effect plays a main role.Quota effect and industrial structure effect are the inhibitory effects on water resource utilization,and quota effect is the main factor.3) From the game between total pushing effects and inhibitory effects,water-saving capacity can adapt to water demand in 1980-2005;after 2005,water-saving capacity can no longer meet the water demand which is fast growing.
【Fund】: 十一五科技支持计划课题(2007BAB28B01)
【CateGory Index】: TV213.9
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