A COMPREHENSIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS OFLAND USE AND LAND COVER CHANGE STUDY
Bai Wanqi Zhao Shidong(Commission for Integrated Survey of Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101)
his paper gives a comprehensive description of the main models of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in global change studies with particular attention to vegetation models and the models which consider social driving forces. The main trends of LUCC modeling are:(a) Future LUCC models should be able to simulate the major socialeconomic and physical driving forces of land use and land cover change,including the major feedback relations from LUCC to driving force sand global change.(b) The models are geographically explicit.With appropriate spatial resolution they can predict the long period (50-100 years) LUCC and associated biophysical parameters, such as vegetation attributes and resource accumulation and degradation.(c) The models can improve our understanding of the local, regional, and global dynamics and consequences of the relationships between LUCC and its main driving forces,and make us consider the sensitivity of land use and land cover change to exogenous variables ( e.g., policy,technological progress, population growth, economic development, market change, and some cultural factors, such as attitudes and values).(d) New methods of LUCC modeling will be developed, which can link LUCC models with other global change models, especially with climatic models.